Team Empathy · Measurement

Baseline snapshot

The “before” picture: the 12 months to 31 August 2026. Everything we deliver is measured against this, and it is re-run on the same day each month. First measured 1 September 2026, restated on Shopify’s numbers once the API came live the same day.

The guarantee, in three answers.
1. What is the baseline now? Over the 12 months to 31 August 2026, non-branded organic search (people who found you on Google without searching your name) generated $4,700 in sales. That is about $390 a month. That is the baseline.

2. How do we measure the incremental $90,000? Each month we measure the sales that came from non-branded organic search, straight from your Shopify and GA4. Everything above the $390-a-month baseline counts toward the $90,000. Counting started 1 September 2026.

3. When do we know we got there? When the running total of those above-baseline sales reaches $90,000.

Why this number looks small next to the others on this page: your search sales overall are roughly $45,000 to $50,000 a year, but almost all of that is people already typing AgelessYou into Google. They were coming anyway. The guarantee counts only the new demand we go and win.

How to read this. Dollars come from Shopify, the system of record, now connected by API. GA4 supplies the behaviour picture (sessions, channels, conversion paths) and Search Console supplies the search picture. Where two systems measure the same thing, both numbers are shown and reconciled, so a month from now we are always comparing like with like.

The headline (Shopify)

$692,725Revenue, 12 months

4,702Orders

$147.33Average order value

2,188Customers

$316.6012-month value per customer

37.8%Repeat-customer rate

3,565Organic clicks (GSC)

93,137Impressions

3.83%Organic CTR

130AI assistant sessions

Customer value is Shopify revenue divided by customers who purchased in the window: the average customer orders 2.15 times, and the 37.8% who come back average 4.04 orders and $594.79. This is why every model in this engagement runs on customer value, not first-order value.

The measurement gap (a finding in its own right)

	Shopify (truth)	GA4	GA4 capture
Revenue	$692,725	$433,572	63%
Orders	4,702	2,879	61%

A healthy GA4 setup captures 85 to 95% of true sales after consent banners and ad blockers. Ageless You’s GA4 is capturing 63%, well outside that range, so roughly a third of the business is invisible to its own analytics. Fixing the measurement (consent mode, the stray tracking-pixel URLs polluting landing-page data) is part of the Phase 1 technical work. Until it is fixed, GA4 figures below are a consistent index for trends, and Shopify carries the dollars.

Channel mix

GA4 view, the only session-level source (read revenue as an index, per above):

Channel	Sessions	Orders	Revenue	Conv.
Paid Social	90,879	1,045	$152,871	1.15%
Direct	15,673	482	$75,882	3.08%
Paid Search	8,846	418	$62,115	4.73%
Organic Search	9,241	300	$49,986	3.25%
Email	2,006	264	$37,390	13.16%
Unassigned	6,512	198	$29,583	3.04%
Paid Shopping	1,999	102	$15,145	5.10%
Referral	738	19	$3,372	2.57%
Organic Shopping	802	18	$2,591	2.24%
Organic Social	1,471	19	$2,479	1.29%
Cross-network	165	11	$1,783	6.67%
AI Assistant	34	2	$245	5.88%

Shopify’s own attribution of the same 12 months (last-click referrer on each order):

Source	Orders	Revenue	Share
Direct / no referrer	1,845	$260,819	37.7%
Paid (click IDs and paid UTMs)	1,723	$256,353	37.0%
Other referrals	492	$79,413	11.5%
Email (Klaviyo)	272	$38,684	5.6%
Organic search, Google	245	$38,422	5.5%
Google Ads (UTM-tagged)	60	$8,879	1.3%
Organic search, other engines	44	$7,032	1.0%
Other (social, misc UTMs)	21	$3,122	0.5%

Rows sum to the $692,725 total, to the dollar.

The reconciliation that matters. Two independent systems land on nearly the same organic number: Shopify attributes $45,454 to organic search (289 orders, all engines) and GA4 says $49,986. So even though GA4 badly under-measures the whole business, the organic search baseline of roughly $45,000 to $50,000 a year is solid, and that agreement is what makes the non-branded figure below trustworthy. Shopify’s 37.7% “direct” bucket means some organic orders lose their referrer, so if anything the true organic figure sits slightly higher.

Search: branded versus the category

	Clicks	Impressions	CTR	Queries
Branded	2,029	15,668	12.95%	225
Non-branded	126	28,258	0.45%	1,516
Anonymised long tail	1,410	—	—	—

39.6% of clicks sit in Search Console’s anonymised long tail, which is overwhelmingly non-branded. So the non-branded share of clicks sits between 3.5% (named only) and 43.1% (including the tail). Both bounds are reported so month-on-month stays honest.

The non-branded baseline (what the engagement is measured against)

The guarantee credits net-new non-branded revenue, so the baseline has to be measured on the same basis. Splitting the 245 Google-organic orders across branded and non-branded clicks (the split that reproduces the measured totals has branded converting about 5x colder category traffic):

	Clicks / yr	Click-to-order	Orders	First-order revenue	12-month customer value
Branded	2,029	10.5%	213	$31,400	$67,400
Non-branded	~1,536	2.1%	~32	~$4,700	~$10,200

The baseline, in one line. Non-branded organic search is worth roughly $4,700 a year in first orders, or $10,200 a year in 12-month customer value, from about 128 clicks a month. That is 0.43% of the ~30,000 winnable non-branded clicks a month across NZ and Australia. Lift above this line, non-branded only, is what the engagement is measured on. The month-by-month growth model built on these numbers lives on the offer tab, in the guarantee section.

AI search

Source	Sessions	Revenue
chatgpt.com	122	$1,016
perplexity	7	$0
claude.ai	1	$0
Total	130	$1,016

GA4’s own AI Assistant channel counts only 34 sessions, so the raw-source scan (130) is the number we track. Both are recorded.

Gaps to close

Item	Status
Shopify API connected, revenue reconciled, baseline restated	Done
GA4 and Search Console access	Connected
Non-branded baseline measured (above); basis to be confirmed together	Confirm
Fix GA4 measurement so it captures 85%+ of sales (Phase 1 technical work)	To do
Google Ads read access, owner unknown	Needed
Meta read access, requested via Tyler	Pending